Why Is the Iran War Not Ending and Becoming Prolonged?
It is because former President Trump’s political calculations clash with Iran’s non-negotiable stance on nuclear development, making it difficult for both sides to align their conditions and causing negotiations to stall.
1. Causes and Outlook of the U.S.–Iran Negotiation Breakdown
The reason negotiations between the United States and Iran have broken down lies in the significant gap between their positions, which could lead to a prolonged war and greater damage.
1.1. Fundamental Reasons for the Breakdown
Differences in Positions Between the U.S. and Iran
The United States insists that Iran must abandon its nuclear development and present a stronger negotiation proposal.
In contrast, Iran maintains that it has not been defeated in the war and therefore has no reason to make concessions.
Trump’s Political Calculations
Trump seeks a stronger agreement than the nuclear deal established during the Obama administration.
This reflects the burden of having to produce a better outcome than the agreement he withdrew from in 2018.
1.2. Hopes and Obstacles for a Deal
Hope for Negotiations: Capitalist Forces Within the U.S.
Rising oil prices caused by incidents in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to worsening public opinion within the United States.
This suggests that capitalist forces within the Trump administration may gain more influence than the pro-Israel line.
Obstacles to Negotiations: Iran’s Non-Negotiable Conditions
Iran maintains a firm stance that it cannot abandon nuclear development.
Additionally, short-range ballistic missiles are directly tied to Iran’s survival, making them a non-negotiable asset.
Iran’s short-range ballistic missiles have a range of up to 2,000 km, which is analyzed as targeting Israel.
U.S. Sanctions and Iran’s Counter Strategy
The United States applies pressure through economic sanctions on Iran, but Iran circumvents these sanctions by using vessels from various countries.
In this process, dangerous situations such as collisions involving Chinese ships may occur.
2. Scenarios and Impact of Prolonged War
A war between the United States and Iran could lead to worst-case scenarios, ultimately becoming a game of “who can endure longer,” which benefits neither side.
2.1. Worst-Case Scenarios and Their Impact
Worst-Case Scenario A: Continuation Until the End of the Year
With U.S. midterm elections scheduled at the end of the year, a prolonged war could weaken Trump’s political standing.
A rise in Democratic influence could even raise the possibility of impeachment.
Worst-Case Scenario B: A Prolonged War of Attrition
If the war turns into a prolonged war of attrition, economic difficulties will intensify.
In this process, there is always a risk of escalation if miscalculated.
However, Iran is expected to face difficulties sustaining a prolonged conflict.
The Nature of the War: Who Can Endure Longer
This war benefits no one; it is a contest of who can withstand greater suffering.
The United States, as a democratic country, is influenced by public opinion, while Iran, as an authoritarian state, faces relatively less internal resistance.
2.2. Historical Background and Future Outlook
Complex Geopolitical Dynamics of the Middle East
Recently, Middle Eastern countries have shown a tendency toward right-wing shifts, which may intensify conflicts.
Unresolved issues such as the Palestinian conflict act as triggers for populist politics and new clashes.
Iran’s Strategy: Fighting on Favorable Ground
Iran judges that it is advantageous to fight under the current conditions, which began somewhat abruptly, given the uncertainty of when the United States might attack again.
As an authoritarian theocratic state, Iran can push forward its strategy despite public opposition.
Some Iranian citizens even argue that rather than a ceasefire, they should fight to the end to bring down the capitalist world.
Uncertainty of the Future Outlook
The outcome of the war remains highly uncertain, with scenarios ranging from the emergence of a figure like Napoleon Bonaparte transforming Iran into a state similar to North Korea, to maintaining the theocratic system through an agreement with the United States.
The current situation is extremely difficult to predict, and the future of the war largely depends on U.S. politics, as well as internal conditions within the Pentagon and the White House.
South Korean media faces limitations in obtaining in-depth information about these internal dynamics.
